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Cash In On the Mud with Off-Track Jockeys
By Hal Wafer
Posted 9/17/09
In this, my second article I will present the little thought about or talked about or hardly ever-mentioned aspect of good and bad off-track jockeys. Moreover, I will show you how to spot these types of jockeys and then ways in which you can use them to your advantage.
Once again, as I always believe in handicapping that hard work and attention to detail will make you a better player. By paying attention on off-track days for which jockeys handle the wet conditions and others that do not will help to give you a leg-up on other bettors who have no-such knowledge.
Understand that you will need to watch carefully on these off-track days to be able to get a good read on good & bad riders. Now, there are several reasons as to why some jockeys handle the sloppy or muddy conditions better than others, which range from; physically stronger to keep their mounts together during the running of a race as not to dispense too much energy until it is needed to other riders not being bothered by the wet & muddy conditions.
Step 1: GOOD MUD JOCKEYS
Pay close attention on off-track days to see how jockeys ride their mounts. Do they seem not be bothered by having mud tossed in their face? Does the rider seem to show courage in certain situations (pushing their horse in tight spots)? Is the rider trying hard even for the third placing or fourth placing in races (trifecta & superfecta wagers)?
These are all solid clues for jockeys that ride well and try hard on off-track days. You should look at these jockeys just as you would mud horses & expect them to perform better than thought by the public.
Step 2: BAD MUD JOCKEYS
Again, pay close attention to jockeys on off-track days for how they ride. Does they jockey seem not to try too hard of muddy days? Is the jockey not riding too gamely? Does the rider seem to mail it in on off-track days with their majority of their mounts?
Look at these types of riders just like you would a turf horse coming off the turf to the main track and do not expect much effort.
Step 3: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
By doing this you will have a list and game plan for off-track days where other players will not. Moreover, here are just some of a few ways to use this:
- You can take advantage of good underrated mud riders on off-tracks because the public will not be aware of them and the price should be good.
- If you play a lot of trifecta’s or superfecta’s watch for the mud riders that seem to always be trying right to the end even though they have no chance of winning the race. These jockeys will be the one’s to use to advantage with these types of wagers.
- If you have, two closely matched horse you like be it on the front end or you are looking to use one in the exotics. Just by knowing, the good mud riders from the bad mud riders a bettor can used this as a guide for tipping the scale in his favor.
I hope you find these tidbits a helpful addition to your handicapping and as always have a good day, and a bettors tomorrow!
Be Kind and Forgiving of Young Lightly Raced Horses
If you do they will be kind to you at the cashier window
By Hal Wafer
Posted 8/14/09
With this being my first article for members of Tracksidebroadcasting.com to read, digest and put into action. I thought it would be best to lay the ground work for improving your play & enjoyment of horseracing by starting you out on some solid foundation.
I believe too many players beat themselves by not getting a solid foundation of knowledge about horseracing and then blaming, and making excuses for their lack of walks back to the cashier windows on anything & everything but themselves. You as a player need to be honest with yourself about your handicapping and then, and only then will you start to develop into a better player.
Below is a two-step process I’ve outlined for uncovering boxcar payoffs on young lightly raced horses:
The first step, on the topic of young lightly raced horses is that their lack of showing is usually not their fault. What you should be on the look out for when looking at a young horses first few races is excuses for why the horse may have done better or was not giving the opportunity to have done better. For example; a troubled trip, being checked, shuffled back and a million and one things (factors) that can go wrong for a horse, and especially a young one at that.
Now, you’re looking for a young horse that in part or to a good degree overcame anyone of these types of obstacles and other factors. For example; perhaps the horse stumbled at the gate to be racing last in a field of 10 horses (15 lengths back) and then moved up in the middle part of the race to be racing sixth (10 lengths back) and then finish evenly to the finish-line. This slight middle move in this race for a young horse would be a tip-off to you that this horse did not have the chance to show his best, and that all other things being equal next time out he will have an improved showing. Now, this is a type of wake-up call we are looking for or as some horseman say, “The light bulb has gone on”. This refers to the horse starting to get the hang of the racing game.
Many bettors will say that a bad step at the gate doesn’t mean anything or that his speed figures came back too low to compete today. And how can I say this horse will run an improved race of about 20 + lengths? I’m saying it’s definitely possible, if not highly probable considering the circumstances from his last race that I have told you. This is a real play I had on a horse at 28-1.
You have to change your mind-set with these young animals, be more forgiving and be willing to dig a little deeper than everyone else to find these hidden jewels, which will pay you off in cold hard cash.
The second step, to unlock the treasure chest of getting box car prices on theses young horses is that you need to get a new mind-set (projections instead of predictions) of what is really happening with these young horses. You want to make projections for young two-year-olds or three-year-olds instead of making predictions. The later is a different thing to do for older horses that have shown what they are capably of doing.
A projection is generalizing (an understanding of form cycles and age potential with certain ages) about the horse and the race situation to see if is possible for him to win against the field that he is facing today. The projection allows you to go beyond the split hair mentality that many players have. I’m not saying that you stop considering the other basic factors for evaluating a horses chances in a race such as; being placed right (class), at the appropriate distance, on the correct surface & etc. You as always consider these basic relevant factors in any race you are handicapping.
Projections allow you to better understand that these young horses; (1) weren’t able to give a good account of themselves last time out, (2) still progressing (growing) in their ability because of their young age, (3) many times they improve many lengths by jumping-up in their form cycle.
By combining the two steps I have shown you here and being willing to do some leg work that others are not willing to do give you and I one or two lengths up on our competition! That’s huge when you know all it takes to win a race is a nose or two! With this new mind-set you start to have a better understanding of what is taking place with a young horse. You should get many long shot winners that others will not because they have no knowledge about the factors I have described here.
To attain consistent racing profits is not easy as you must be willing to work more, do more and know more than the guy or gal next to you at the track, race book or online at BetAmerica.com. This is just part of what I do for my clients in my Daily Free Pick & Simulcast Selection Sheet which is offered here at Tracksidebroadcasting.com & BetAmerica.com; “I just try and I try hard!”
I have tried to be clear and simple as possible so you understand the principles involved in getting nice juicy winners! Until next month have a good day and a bettor’s tomorrow!
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