Kristin Slape’s BELMONT PARK PICKS
Placed for SATURDAY, June 19, 2010 1st Post 1 PM EST
Good Luck!
Pick Info:
Speed figure references are BRIS figures
FTS-First time starter
FT First time (as in FT lasix)
2nd timer-horse making 2nd career start
HFC=Horse for Course
TS = Turf Specialist
DS = Distance Specialist
OC=Optional Claiming/Allowance
MC=Maiden claiming
MDN=Maiden Special Weight
HCP=Handicap
ALW=Allowance and ST ALW =Starter Allowance
G1, G2, G3 =Graded Stakes
ML odds listed first and Fair Odds after horse name in ( ).
Stats listed are in win-ITM (in the money) format (Example
25%-50% would mean 25% wins and 50% ITM)
Alternate pick in case of scratch: these are as said, in
case of a scratch, but also can be used in gimmicks-
(consider them in order as my 5th, 6th choice). Use the
speed and class rating horses as chance LONGSHOT PLAYS or
additions to your gimmicks as they come through quite
often as well.
WAGERING TIP: Never bet against a legitimate favorite—only
bet against the favorites that are false or vulnerable
favorites. If you decided before you looked at the tote on
a particular horse because it had what it takes to win the
race and then look at the tote and the horse is 1/9, DO
NOT bet against that horse because of the odds, either sit
that race out and enjoy watching the race, OR bet it
(course 1/9 is not a smart bet), but do not hunt because
of the odds. Better to find another race where you will
get a square price than to waste a bet.
BELMONT PARK PICKS FOR SATURDAY- GOOD LUCK TODAY!
BEL RACE 1 ALW 38Kn1x 6F TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 4-7-5-6 Class Rating: 11-10-2
Speed Rating: 11-9-3
Speed Par for this Race: 89
4 2/1 SOLAR PANEL (2/1) early runner broke maiden last
start at today’s distance on the turf and clocked 80; HFC
(2 1-1-0) and DS ( 2-1-1-0).
7 4/1 MIGHTY TUFF (3/1) broke maiden over the Belmont turf
2 starts back at today’s distance on turf and clocked 85;
tried 7 panels and finished 6th last start and may improve
with the turn back to 6 panels.
5 5/2 SCALE (7/2) RICE FT TURF (65 16%-31%); SIRE (HOOK
AND LADDER)-DAM (daughter of Gone West) W/FT TURF (2%-
15%). Best dirt speed is 89.
6 9/2 MIDNIGHT MASS (9/2) broke maiden by 5L last start at
7 panels and clocked 83; THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (21%-55%);
stalker
MAIN TRACK ONLY:
11 9/5 HOT MINUTE (9/5) Top pick if race is off turf today
as he has sharp speed figures and you may also want to
include 8,9,10 in gimmicks as they have some speed too and
are MTO entries too.
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BEL RACE 2 CLM 25Kn2L 1M 1/8 iTURF3UP
Top Selections: 2-3-6-7 Class Rating: 2-6-3
Speed Rating: 2-6-3
Speed Par for this Race: 82
2 9/5 SO IT GOES (9/5) closer drops in for a tag for the
first time (6%-28%) in his 15 race career; TURF (11 1-3-2)
and HFC (7 1-2-1). Has been racing against tougher first
level allowance foes and has the speed to win this.
3 5/2 THE PLOT THICKENS (5/2) early runner has high early
foot from the gate and could set the pace; ran a close up
3rd last start (83) vs similar; BEL record on turf (11 1-2-
3).
6 5/1 MILLENNIUM JET (5/1) early runner ran a close up 4th
last start vs similar (82) and adds some distance today
which may help however note that he is an 18 time maiden
but has hit the board in 6 of the starts.
7 4/1 RAVEN’S CHOICE (4/1) stalker broke maiden last start
vs 25K claimers and clocked 82. THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (11
18%-36%).
-----------------------------------
BEL RACE 3 OC 50Kn2x 1M 3UP
Top Selections: 3-2-5 Class Rating: 3-2-5
Speed Rating: 2-3-4
Speed Par for this Race: 100
3 6/5 IMPERIAL COUNCIL (7/5) closer ran a very close 2nd
vs similar last start (99) and is a HFC (4 1-2-0); multi
stakes placed.
2 2/1 MASALA (2/1) presser ran 3rd vs similar last start
and clocked 96 and is another with some graded stakes
experience though hasn’t hit the board in any. DS (3 1-1-1)
5 4/1 GREENSPIRIT (4/1) early runner has high early foot
and beat 35K open claimers last start (96) but has won at
this level before. This one was part of an entry on the
Friday card so may be a scratch here, if so my third pick
is 4 STRAPPING GROOM.
-------------------------------------------------
BEL RACE 4 CLM 15Kn2L 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 6-7-10-9 Class Rating: 7-6-9
Speed Rating: 7-6-5
Speed Par for this Race: 79
6 9/5 MONEY’S SWEET (9/5) broke maiden last start by 4 ½ L
vs MC 20K company and clocked 85.
7 5/2 LE BONNE VIE (2/1) stalker drops a level (0/12-33%);
makes the THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (12%-47%); best dirt
speed is 90 and if repeated will be a threat.
10 5/1 LIVING FOR THIS (5/1) early runner makes the first
start off claim (12%-25%); best dirt speed is 86 posted
when breaking maiden at first asking 5 starts ago.
9 8/1 MIND BOGGLING (8/1) presser meets winners for the
first time after breaking maiden last start; good record
at distance (9 1-2-3).
---------------------------------------------
BEL RACE 5 CLM 7.5K 6 1/2F 3UP
Top Selections: 8-1-2-3 Class Rating: 2-3-7
Speed Rating: 2-3-1
Speed Par for this Race: 87
8 9/2 KILN CREEK (7/2) beat 10K open claimers last start
and clocked 91; trainer is 1/1 with drops off a win and
(19%-38%) with class drops in general.
1 3/1 COACH GRAVY (3/1) stalker beat 10K non 3 lifers last
start and clocked 84 but has some back speed that is much
faster. Good record at distance so far ( 2 1-1-0).
2 5/1 NATURAL SPEED (4/1) stalker likes the BEL strip (4 1-
1-1) and ran 4th in last vs tougher 10K open claimers;
trainer is (10%-32%) on the class drop.
3 4/1 MR. BOURBON STREET (4/1) stalker ran a close up 3rd
in last (93) vs similar and makes the 2nd start off the
layoff which can bring improvement, however has not hit
board in 5 starts at the distance.
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BEL RACE 6 ALW 53Kn1x 1M 3UP
Top Selections: 2-7-3-6 Class Rating: 2B-4-8
Speed Rating: 7-2B-1
Speed Par for this Race: 98
COMPETITIVE, CONTENTIOUS!
2 2/1 WINAHOLIC (2/1) first part of the Todd Pletcher
coupled entry ran a 95 last start while breaking maiden
(77K) and meets winners today; Johnny V. will be in the
saddle. 2B 2/1 AIKENITE (2/1) is the most experienced in
the field and clocked a 102 recent best speed figure; on
paper appears to be the one to beat as he is multi stakes
placed.
7 5/1 COCALERO (7/2) closer is a 2nd timer making the
first start in the Godolphin colors (26%-64%); ran an
impressive 99 while breaking maiden (50K) at first asking.
3 5/2 SAFETY CHECK (3/1) broke maiden last start by almost
8L and clocked 97 and now stretches out to a route (14%-
42%).
6 5/1 SHREWD ONE (4/1) beat 39K entry level allowance foes
last start by 13L and clocked 98 and may be a threat right
back.
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BEL RACE 7 MC 16K 6F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 8-5-12-10 Class Rating: 5-8-9
Speed Rating: 8-5-10
Speed Par for this Race: 69
8 3/1 HED DEPUTY (3/1) early runner could set the pace and
that will help chances; ran 2nd in both of last two vs
similar and best dirt speed (78) which she clocked 2 back.
5 4/1 LA BELLE GABRIELLE (4/1) closer is in for a tag for
the first time (30%-57%) and is 2 for 3 ITM at the
distance; bets dirt speed is 74.
12 6/1 MY TWO CENTS (5/1) 2nd timer from the Weaver barn
(17%-38%) is in for a tag (15%-42%) and may be helped by
the added distance. VALUE PLAY.
10 8/1 HOOKEDON KARAKORUM (8/1) in for a tag for the first
time in 5 race career (0/9-33%) and may be helped by the
removal of blinkers (13 15%-31%)
--------------------------------------------
BEL RACE 8 MDN 37K 1M 1/16 TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 8-3-9-11 Class Rating: 11-9-4
Speed Rating: 11-9-4
Speed Par for this Race: 77
8 3/1 KATY’S OFFICE GIRL (3/1) ran a close 2nd last start
vs similar and the added distance may help chances here.
3 9/2 HOLY MOLY (7/2) 2nd timer (23%-52%) from the barn of
Christophe Clement comes back from a 7+ mo layoff (20%-
52%); ran 4th in the debut race and makes 2nd route start
(24%-50%).
9 7/2 BRETTON WOODS (4/1) close up 2nd last start vs
similar and now makes the 2nd start since the layoff (17%-
51%); 2 for 3 ITM on grass.
11 10/1 MONEIGH (10/1) LIVE LONGSHOT PLAY; closer is 2 for
6 ITM on sod and makes the 2nd start with trainer Tim Ice
(who had a win yesterday) (15 7%-33%); best turf speed is
fastest of these (88) and that was clocked just 2 back.
-----------------------
BEL RACE 9 $150K G2 NY Stakes 1M ¼ iTURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 7-6-5-2 Class Rating: 6-5-1
Speed Rating: 4-5-6
Speed Par for this Race: 99
7 4/1 GOZZIP GIRL (2/1) ran 3rd in the G1 Queen Elizabeth
II Cup last start and clocked 93 and has won on the turf 5
of 8 times. One of those wins was at today’s distance and
he a decent turf jock in Ramon Dominguez. Tom Albertrani
trains.
6 5/2 LADY SHAKESPEARE (5/2) closer beat G3 foes last
start on the KEE turf and is back from a 58 day break (16%-
43%); ran a sharp 103 in the G3 Orchid two starts ago.
5 7/2 DAVERON (3/1) Christophe Clement charge enters off a
win vs 2nd level 50K OC company where she clocked 101; TS
(5 3-1-1) and is 1/1 at BEL; pressing style.
2 9/2 CHANGING SKIES (4/1) Bill Mott trainee ran 2nd in
the G3 Bewitched S. (same race my 2nd pick exits from) and
clocked 95. DS (4 1-1-1).
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BEL RACE 10 MC 25K 6F TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: Class Rating: 1-3-8
Speed Rating: 5-1-3
Speed Par for this Race: 75
1 4/1 ANGEL WAVE (4/1) stalker is a 12 time maiden who has
hit the board in 7 of those starts; best turf speed is 80
posted two starts back; would not take a short price on
this one though.
3 5/2 OFFICER FLIRT (3/1) presser ran a very good 2nd last
start vs similar and clocked 74, and which was the first
time she has ever hit the board in 6 career starts.
6 7/2 SUNDAE’S A MEESE (4/1) closer is back in for a tag
and makes the 2nd grass start (0/2-0/2); rates well here
as she is making only her 5th lifetime start.
7 6/1 DISARMING (9/2) FTS D. DUGGAN (10%-29%); SIRE (SMART
STRIKE)-DAM (a daughter of Unbridled) W/FT TURF (11%-18%).
Contact Kristin Slape at hulabird@prodigy.net and on
Twitter @hulabird1
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