Kristin Slape’s BELMONT PARK PICKS
Placed for SATURDAY, July 3, 2010 1st Post 1 PM EST
Good Luck!
Pick Info:
Speed figure references are BRIS figures
FTS-First time starter
FT First time (as in FT lasix)
2nd timer-horse making 2nd career start
HFC=Horse for Course
TS = Turf Specialist
DS = Distance Specialist
OC=Optional Claiming/Allowance
MC=Maiden claiming
MDN=Maiden Special Weight
HCP=Handicap
ALW=Allowance and ST ALW =Starter Allowance
G1, G2, G3 =Graded Stakes
ML odds listed first and Fair Odds after horse name in ( ).
Stats listed are in win-ITM (in the money) format (Example
25%-50% would mean 25% wins and 50% ITM)
Alternate pick in case of scratch: these are as said, in
case of a scratch, but also can be used in gimmicks-
(consider them in order as my 5th, 6th choice). Use the
speed and class rating horses as chance LONGSHOT PLAYS or
additions to your gimmicks as they come through quite
often as well.
WAGERING TIP: Never bet against a legitimate favorite—only
bet against the favorites that are false or vulnerable
favorites. If you decided before you looked at the tote on
a particular horse because it had what it takes to win the
race and then look at the tote and the horse is 1/9, DO
NOT bet against that horse because of the odds, either sit
that race out and enjoy watching the race, OR bet it
(course 1/9 is not a smart bet), but do not hunt because
of the odds. Better to find another race where you will
get a square price than to waste a bet.
BELMONT PARK PICKS FOR SATURDAY- GOOD LUCK TODAY!
BEL RACE 1 CLM 7.5K 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 2-7-6 Class Rating: 2-7-1
Speed Rating: 2-1-7
Speed Par for this Race: 87
2 5/2 GIMMEAROUTINE (5/2) ran a close up 2nd in last vs
tougher 10K open claimers and now takes a class drop (21%-
38%) while making 2nd start with trainer (6 17%-17%); HFC
(10 3-1-2) and DS (26 6-6-5). 2B 5/2 KARAKORUM ON BLACK
(7/2) stalker ran a close up 4th in last vs similar stock
and clocked 89; back from a 56 day rest (3%-34%).
7 8/5 COACH GRAVY (2/1) stalker has high early foot and
enters this off back to back wins, his last against
similar company as today and ran 88. HFC (3 2-1-0) but has
yet to win at today’s distance (4 0-1-2).
6 4/1 FELINEFELON (4/1) stalker has moderate early foot
and beat 15K non 3 life claimers last start, clocking 89.
BEL (4 1-1-1) and Distance (12 2-2-2).
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BEL RACE 2 MDN 51K 1M 3UP
Top Selections: 4-5-1/3 Class Rating: 4-5-6
Speed Rating: 4-5-6
Speed Par for this Race: 96
4 7/5 BROTHER BIRD (7/5) Pletcher charge hit the board in
all 4 lifetime starts (4 0-3-1) and just needs a win; bets
dirt speed posted 2 back is 97; stalking style and looks
like the one to beat here.
5 5/2 MEDAL ROUND (5/2) Steve Asmussen charge has a
closing style and ran an 86 while finishing a very good
2nd last start vs 48K special weights.
1 10/1 ULTERIOR MOTIVE (8/1) early runner is the likely
pacesetter; hails from the barn of Rick Dutrow; ran 87 in
last vs tougher 77K special weight foes and makes the
THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (33%-59%).
3 7/2 SAVANNAH BAY (5/1) FTS ZITO (191 7%-28%); SIRE
(MINESHAFT)-DAM (a daughter of Red Ransom) w/FTS (5%-11%);
decent work tab.
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BEL RACE 3 MDN 36K 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 2-1-6 Class Rating: 2-1-6
Speed Rating: 6-2-1
Speed Par for this Race: 84
2 2/1 COMMON CURRENCY (2/1) 2nd time starter makes the 1st
start with trainer Mike Hushion (31%-67%); back from a 10+
mo layoff (17%-43%).
1 7/2 GOLD GHOST (7/2) 2nd timer (26%-63%) gets FT lasix
(26%-48%) and ran a very good 2nd last start vs weaker 22K
special weights at FL; early runner could set the pace.
6 3/1 JELLO SHOT (3/1) early runner has some back speed
(79) that would make him at threat if he ran back to it
today.
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BEL RACE 4 ALW 38Kn1x 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 2-1-4-3 Class Rating: 2-3-1
Speed Rating: 2-4-1
Speed Par for this Race: 89
2 4/5 HOT MINUTE (6/5) early runner from the Rick Dutrow
barn has high early speed (an 8 on 0-8 scale) but will
have some pressure from my number 3 pick who is also an
early runner (7 on a scale of 0-8); comes off a 49 day
rest (23%-51%) and clocked a career best 96 last start
while running a close up 2nd vs similar.
1 9/2 ONE NOTE SAMBA (9/2) Pletcher charge comes off a 9+
mo layoff (21%-49%); prior to the break he was facing
tougher stakes foes (including G1); ran a 93 when breaking
maiden 3 starts back.
4 4/1 SOURCEOFTHENILE (4/1) early runner ran a close up
3rd last start vs similar (93) and comes off a 49 day rest
(25%-50%).
3 6/1 VOSE THE HOST (5/1) closer broke maiden (MDN 36K)
last start and clocked 86 on the mud; comes off a 52 day
rest (14%-41%); trainer is (5%-38%) with maiden win
repeaters.
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BEL RACE 5 MDN 37K 1M 1/16 TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 7-4-5-2 Class Rating: 8-7-4
Speed Rating: 5-7-8
Speed Par for this Race: 79
7 7/2 SOLUTIONFINDERS (3/1) closer is 2 for 4 ITM on turf
and best turf speed is 76; ran a very good 2nd last start
vs similar and makes 2nd start with trainer (47%-73%); 2nd
start off layoff (26%-61%).
4 5/2 TAPITDAR (5/2) stalker is 2 for 3 ITM on the grass
and best turf speed is 73; could be a threat here.
5 4/1 FELICE DI NOTTE (4/1) presser; best turf speed is 79
and that was run 2 starts back; ran evenly in last two vs
similar (sometimes 2 even finishes in a row can produce
something in the 3rd start after them).
2 10/1 SEPHARDIC (10/1) Closer; 2nd timer (8%-30%) makes
the 2nd start on grass (52 12%-42%); attracts Dominguez.
LONGSHOT CHANCE PLAY.
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BEL RACE 6 MC 35K 6F iTURF 3UP
Top Selections: 2-8-10-7 Class Rating: 7-2-5
Speed Rating: 7-8-2
Speed Par for this Race: 79
2 7/2 STROLLDOWNBROADWAY (3/1) early runner ran a 3rd
three starts back and clocked 75 vs similar stock.
8 7/2 PEGASUS ENA (7/2) presser makes the 2nd start on
grass (0/1-0/1) and steps up more than 2 class levels (0/8-
12%); ran a close up 2nd in the turf debut last start and
clocked 78.
10 10/1 FRIED (10/1) FTS SCHOSBERG (46 11%-35%); DEBUT IN
MC COMPANY (11 9%-45%) SIRE (FREUD)-DAM (a daughter of
Cryptoclearance) w/FT TURF (14%-5%).
7 6/1 NEARLY THERE (5/1) early runner has high early speed
and makes the first start on grass (12 17%-42%); SIRE
(ROCK AND ROLL)-DAM (a daughter of Distinctive Pro) w/FT
TURF (5%-4%).
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BEL RACE 7 MDN 50K 7F TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 8-1-4-3 Class Rating: 8-4-1
Speed Rating: 1-7-8
Speed Par for this Race: 91
8 3/1 AD INFINITUM (3/1) Bill Mott charge and presser
makes the 2nd start with the trainer (15%-40%) and is back
from a 4+ mo layoff (23%-48%); ran 77 in only turf start
and figures to improve today.
1 2/1 CAFE DES ARTISTES (2/1) presser comes back from a 2+
mo layoff (33%-59%) and best turf speed is 90; shorter
distance today could help chances.
4 5/1 RITUAL (4/1) Shug McGaughey charge returns from a 9+
mo layoff (87 17%-60%); FT TURF (11%-35%); 2nd time
starter (13%-49%). SIRE(PULPIT)-DAM (a daughter of Easy
Goer) w/FT TURF 12%-14%)
3 8/1 SCARY GUY (8/1) FTS KIMMEL (167 13%-34%); debut on
turf (24 12%-25%); SIRE (VINDICATION)-DAM (a daughter of
Gone West) w/FT TURF (8%-15%).
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BEL RACE 8 OC 25Kn2x 1M 1/16 iTURF 3UP
Top Selections: 6-3-7-4 Class Rating: 7-2-6
Speed Rating: 7-4-6
Speed Par for this Race: 93
6 3/1 PEGASUS TOMMY D. (3/1) stalker from the Rick Dutrow
barn ran a close up 2nd last start vs similar and clocked
88; best recent turf speed is 92, two starts back; THIRD
START OFF LAYOFF (33%-59%); TURF (12 2-1-1).
3 4/1 FLOWERSONYOURBACK (4/1) presser ran a close up 3rd
in last start vs similar (80) but best turf speed is 86;
TURF (4 1-1-2).
7 6/1 FENWAY FAITHFUL (9/2) Rick Violette trainee makes
turf debut (7%-25%); SIRE (GRAND SLAM)-DAM (a daughter of
Deputy Minister) w/FT TURF (10%-10%); showed decent main
track speed in all starts now must transfer it to the sod.
4 10/1 MR. VEGAS (8/1) stalker is a Mike Hushion trainee
making the THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (27%-61%) and best turf
speed is 92; 2 wins for 6 turf starts.
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BEL RACE 9 G2 $300K SUBURBAN H. 1M 1/8 3UP
Top Selections: 1-3-6 Class Rating: 6-3-5
Speed Rating: 1A-3-6
Speed Par for this Race: 106
1 7/5 PICTURAL (6/1) stalker doesn’t appear to fit with
these speed-wise; best recent dirt speed is 91.1A 7/5 I
WANT REVENGE (7/5) top threat IF ready off the 455 day
vacation (22%-50%); this is the horse scratched on the
morning of last year’s Derby, shattering Joe Talamo’s
dream of his first Derby run; makes the 1st start with
Rick Dutrow (22%-50%); best dirt speed of 113 was clocked
when winning the G3 Gotham; also won the G1 Wood Memorial
in 2009.
3 4/1 CONVOCATION (3/1) ran 4th in the G1 Met Mile last
start (104) and in fact posted triple digit speed figures
in the last 3 starts in a row. HFC (5 1-3-0).
6 5/1 HAYNESFIELD (4/1) stalker has high early speed and
its tactical; HFC (4 3-1-0) and ran a 104 last start vs
100K OC company; also a G3 winner 2 starts back (102).
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BEL RACE 10 ALW 38Kn1x 7F TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 6-11-3-8 Class Rating: 9-6-10
Speed Rating: 6-9-3
Speed Par for this Race: 89
6 4/1 DOUBLE DOMINO (3/1) Pletcher trainee missed by a
neck to be 2nd best last start vs 44K entry level
allowance stock (86); back from an 8+ mo layoff (21%-49%);
TURF (6 1-2-0); finished 2nd in both of only 2 BEL turf
starts. Stalker that may lay a bit off the pace.
11 3/1 EXPEDITION (7/2) stalker has decent early speed
(about a 6 on the 0-8 scale); ran a very good 3rd inlast
vs tougher 71.6K entry level allowance stock (83); may
enjoy the added distance today.
3 7/2 JOEY’S CHANCE (4/1) stalker (low early foot) ran a
very good 2nd vs similar last start (86); BEL (6 1-1-1);
DISTANCE (5 1-1-1); TURF (8 1-2-1).
8 15/1 L. C. BULGARI (12/1) LIVE LONGSHOT PLAY; stalker
who usually lays a bit off the pace is reunited with Ramon
Dominguez who rode him to a close up 3rd 2 starts back vs
similar stock and clocked 83; gets FT blinkers today (23%-
49%) and makes the THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (23%-49%).
---------------------------------
BEL RACE 11 CLM 25Kn2L 1M 1/16 iTURF 3UP
Top Selections: 7-11-9-3 Class Rating: 6-10-3
Speed Rating: 6-7-9
Speed Par for this Race: 82
7 5/2 CHROMOSPERE (5/2) presser is a son of Smart Strike
(14% winners on turf with progeny) and missed by a ˝ L to
be 2nd best last start vs similar (84); Distance (2 1-1-
0); TURF (6 1-2-0); BEL (4 0-2-0).
11 4/1 EL TUNE (7/2) stalker has to draw in off the AE
list; ran a very good 3rd last start vs similar (83) and
now stretches back out (25%-43%) to a route (Distance: 2 1-
0-0); FT blinkers (19 5%-32%).
9 3/1 SMART SELECTION (3/1) early runner has high early
speed and ran a good 2nd last start vs similar (83); Has
yet to win on grass (5 0-1-2).
3 4/1 BISHOP OF NOLA (4/1) stalker ran a close up 6th last
start vs tougher entry level allowance foes and clocked
80; in for a tag for the fir5st time ever (22 9%-41%).
SPEED TO PICK UP A SLICE:
6 8/1 MILLENNIUM JET (8/1) early runner ran a close up 2nd
last start (87) and has the speed to grab a share;
however, cannot seem to get a win at the distance (11 0-2-
3) or on turf (19 0-4-3).
Contact Kristin Slape at hulabird@prodigy.net and on
Twitter @hulabird1
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