Kristin Slape’s BELMONT PARK PICKS
Placed for THURSDAY, July 15, 2010 1st Post 1 PM EST
Good Luck!
Pick Info:
Speed figure references are BRIS figures
FTS-First time starter
FT First time (as in FT lasix)
2nd timer-horse making 2nd career start
HFC=Horse for Course
TS = Turf Specialist
DS = Distance Specialist
OC=Optional Claiming/Allowance
MC=Maiden claiming
MDN=Maiden Special Weight
HCP=Handicap
ALW=Allowance and ST ALW =Starter Allowance
G1, G2, G3 =Graded Stakes
ML odds listed first and Fair Odds after horse name in ( ).
Stats listed are in win-ITM (in the money) format (Example
25%-50% would mean 25% wins and 50% ITM)
Alternate pick in case of scratch: these are as said, in
case of a scratch, but also can be used in gimmicks-
(consider them in order as my 5th, 6th choice). Use the
speed and class rating horses as chance LONGSHOT PLAYS or
additions to your gimmicks as they come through quite
often as well.
WAGERING TIP: Never bet against a legitimate favorite—only
bet against the favorites that are false or vulnerable
favorites. If you decided before you looked at the tote on
a particular horse because it had what it takes to win the
race and then look at the tote and the horse is 1/9, DO
NOT bet against that horse because of the odds, either sit
that race out and enjoy watching the race, OR bet it
(course 1/9 is not a smart bet), but do not hunt because
of the odds. Better to find another race where you will
get a square price than to waste a bet.
BELMONT PARK PICKS FOR THURSDAY- GOOD LUCK TODAY!
BEL RACE 1 ALW 52K 7F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 4-3-2-1 Class Rating: 3-7-2
Speed Rating: 4-2-1
Speed Par for this Race: 94
WAGERING NOTE: Tough race for the gimmicks, I would
include the 6 as well if funds permit.
4 2/1 HATHEER (2/1) failed as the favorite in last 3
starts vs similar, but has the speed to be a threat today.
The move from route back to a sprint may help.
3 3/1 PHANTOM RISING (3/1) early runner from the Bill Mott
barn makes the 3rd career start and turf debut (13%-32%);
2nd time lasix (14%-42%); SIRE (MR. GREELEY)-DAM (a
daughter of Quiet American) w/FT TURF (10%-8%).
2 5/1 CITIFIESTA (5/1) presser ran a close up 3rd last
start while clocking 87 but ran a 92 in the start before;
The added distance could be just what this daughter of
Citidancer needs
1 10/1 ECHT (6/1) VALUE PLAY; can show good speed on the
sod and the cut back to a sprint could help chances;
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BEL RACE 2 MDN 50K 5 ½ F 2YO
Top Selections: 3-7-4-6 Class Rating: 1
Speed Rating: 1
Speed Par for this Race: 93
WAGERING NOTE: CONTENTIOUS WIDE OPEN RACE
3 2/1 STAY THIRSTY (2/1) FTS PLETCHER (17%-42%); SIRE
(BERNARDINI)-DAM (a daughter of Storm Bird) w/FTS (n/a-
12%); solid work tab including BULLET drills in last 2
works.
7 5/2 SOVEREIGN DEFAULT (5/2) FTS VIOLETTE (19%-49%); SIRE
(NORTHERN AFLEET)-DAM w/FTS (15%-6%);
4 7/2 PUNSTER (3/1) FTS ALEXANDER (12%-32%); SIRE
(DISTORTED HUMOR)-DAM (a daughter of Victory Gallop) w/FTS
(17%-10%)
6 8/1 AIR SUPPORT (6/1) FTS MCGAUGHEY (91 7%-34%); SIRE
(SMART STRIKE)-DAM (a daughter of Danzig) w/FTS (14%-25%)
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BEL RACE 3 MDN 50K 6 ½ F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 6-2-3-4 Class Rating: 6-3
Speed Rating: 6-3
Speed Par for this Race: 90
6 1/1 IVYBRIDGE (3/2) ran a close up 2nd last start vs
similar and clocked 84 and now makes the third career
start for Tom Albertrani.
2 3/1 ARENA ELVIRA (3/1) FTS MOTT (330 8%-29%); SIRE
(GHOSTZAPPER)-DAM (a daughter of TWINING) w/FTS (2%-13%)
3 4/1 FREEDOM FLAG (7/2) best dirt speed is 83 and that
was 3 back at 1M. Back from a 3+ mo layoff (17%-60%).
4 30/1 AMAZING MARY (20/1) LONGSHOT but had to be
mentioned because the sire/dam FTS stats are good; SIRE
(DANCING MISSILE)-DAM (a daughter of Capote)-w/FTS (20%-
12%). Trainer is 0/1-0/1 with FTS.
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BEL RACE 4 CLM 16Kn2L 6F iTURF 3UP
Top Selections: 6-7-2-1 Class Rating: 6-9-1
Speed Rating: 6-7-9
Speed Par for this Race: 86
6 1/1 FIRST OF TEN (1/1) closer missed by ¾ L last start
vs similar to be 3rd and clocked 81 but has run faster
than that in the past; goes route to sprint today (14%-
37%).
7 9/2 SLAMM’N LOU (4/1) presser can improve with the
return to the sod today (0/16-12%); best turf speed is 84
(3 back).
2 12/1 RICHIE RULES (10/1) stalker has some back speed
(87, 93 on dirt) that would put him in the hunt if
repeated today in his 2nd grass race (15 27%-27%); FT
blinkers (38 5%-39%) and Desormeaux in the irons.
1 12/1 KICK UP YOUR HEELS (15/1) early runner has finished
3rd over the BEL oval 3 times in 26 starts. Draws rail
winning at a 26% clip; could take 3rd with best.
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BEL RACE 5 ST ALW 25K 1M 1/16 3UP
Top Selections: 5-7-2-3 Class Rating: 2-3-5
Speed Rating: 2-5-3
Speed Par for this Race: 97
5 9/2 CLEAR FAITH (7/2) stalker ran 3rd last start vs
tougher 100K stakes foes and clocked 93 and may be helped
by the added distance since he owns a record of (5 1-2-1)
at 8.5 panels.
7 2/1 BAD ACTION (5/2) presser from the Pletcher barn ran
a close up 6th last start vs tougher 62.5K OC company and
regularly runs in the low to high 90’s; Needs a win at
today’s distance (6 0-2-2).
2 5/2 SENIORS PRIDE (3/1) stalker beat 12.5K starter
allowance foes in his last and ran a sharp 101; trainer is
(0/10-10%) with repeaters.
3 3/1 MAGIC LION (4/1) early runner has high early foot
and will likely set the pace; won both of last two by
about 5L in each and the last was against tougher 50K
starter allowance stock.
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BEL RACE 6 MC 25K 1M 1/16 TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 6-5-3-8 Class Rating: 5-6-3
Speed Rating: 5-4-3
Speed Par for this Race: 80
6 7/2 LEMON TIGER (3/1) 2nd timer (8%-23) is back from a
3+ mo layoff (11%-20%) and should like the added distance
today.
5 5/2 NO IMAGINATION (7/2) closer missed by 3L last start
to finish 6th vs tougher 35K claimers (5%-32% on class
drop) and is another that has the pedigree to like the
extra distance.
3 3/1 SUNDAE’S A MEESE (3/1) steps up a level (18%-27%)
after finishing even in the last two starts; 2nd time
router (4 25%-25%).
8 5/1 RUBY’S MAGIC SPELL (5/1) is in for a tag for the
first time (3%-16%) and in this field that may be enough
to prevail.
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BEL RACE 7 ST ALW 16K 6F iTURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 8-3-7-2 Class Rating: 9-3-11
Speed Rating: 9-8-3
Speed Par for this Race: 91
8 2/1 TEMPEST STORM (2/1) stalker has high early foot and
is a HFC (6 3-0-1); TS (15 4-2-2). Has been facing tougher
entry level allowance foes.
3 4/1 LINNEA (7/2) Stalker won last two starts in a row
and now makes the 2nd start off the layoff after clocking
98 at PHA. TS (7 5-1-0)
7 5/2 TALENTED PRINCESS (3/1) closer is back from a 48 day
rest (17%-48%) and makes the first start since the claim
(14%-51%); Not without a chance at the win.
2 6/1 PRINCESS MAURA (9/2) stalker comes from a bit off
the pace and enters off a close up 4th where she clocked
85 vs tougher 62.5K OC company. Gets a slice with best.
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BEL RACE 8 OC 50Kn2x 7F TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 9-4-8-5 Class Rating: 9-3-7
Speed Rating: 3-9-5
Speed Par for this Race: 93
9 2/1 MOR CHANCES (2/1) stalker beat similar last start at
today’s distance and is rested after a 49 day break (23%-
51%); in for a tag for the first time (30%-57%); GFC (7 3-
0-1).
3 7/2 GOLD VENDETTA (7/2) missed by less than 2L last
start vs similar taking the show and clocked 88, but ran
94 in the start before that at today’s distance. TS (10 3-
1-2). HFC (6 2-0-2)
8 5/2 HOT MONEY (3/1) beat 50K starter allowance foes last
start and clocked 91. Another who is fond of the BEL turf
(6 3-0-1). DS (3 2-0-1).
5 12/1 BRAZEN KAT (12/1) stalker is back from a 60 day
layoff (9%-33%) and may improve with the return to the sod
(12%-28%); can show good speed and may take a share of the
TRI or SUPER with best.
-----------------------
BEL RACE 9 MC 40K 7F 3UP
Top Selections: 3-7-2-1 Class Rating: 3-1-2
Speed Rating: 3-1-7
Speed Par for this Race: 86
3 2/1 SEA OF LIQUIDITY (2/1) improvement expected with the
return to a sprint and in fact he ran a decent 2nd in his
debut which was at today’s distance three starts ago and
clocked a career best 92.
7 6/1 FRIENDLY WAGER (4/1) has the speed to win if he can
let himself do it; class drop can help (9%-29%) and only
missed by ¾ L to finish 4th last start vs tougher 50K
maiden claimers.
2 5/2 W. W.’S LADY’S MAN (3/1) 2nd start off the claim
(33%-54%) after finishing 2nd in last vs tougher 80K
maiden claimers; hot the board in 3 of 4 starts, all 2nd
place efforts. Gets Dominguez and is not without a shot.
1 10/1 DRIVEN BY FEAR (10/1) ran a close up 2nd while
clocking 90 last start vs tougher special weights; in for
a tag (13%-48%).
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Contact Kristin Slape at hulabird@prodigy.net and on
Twitter @hulabird1
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