Kristin Slape’s BELMONT PARK PICKS
Placed for FRIDAY, July 16, 2010 1st Post 1 PM EST
Good Luck!
Pick Info:
Speed figure references are BRIS figures
FTS-First time starter
FT First time (as in FT lasix)
2nd timer-horse making 2nd career start
HFC=Horse for Course
TS = Turf Specialist
DS = Distance Specialist
OC=Optional Claiming/Allowance
MC=Maiden claiming
MDN=Maiden Special Weight
HCP=Handicap
ALW=Allowance and ST ALW =Starter Allowance
G1, G2, G3 =Graded Stakes
ML odds listed first and Fair Odds after horse name in ( ).
Stats listed are in win-ITM (in the money) format (Example
25%-50% would mean 25% wins and 50% ITM)
Alternate pick in case of scratch: these are as said, in
case of a scratch, but also can be used in gimmicks-
(consider them in order as my 5th, 6th choice). Use the
speed and class rating horses as chance LONGSHOT PLAYS or
additions to your gimmicks as they come through quite
often as well.
WAGERING TIP: Never bet against a legitimate favorite—only
bet against the favorites that are false or vulnerable
favorites. If you decided before you looked at the tote on
a particular horse because it had what it takes to win the
race and then look at the tote and the horse is 1/9, DO
NOT bet against that horse because of the odds, either sit
that race out and enjoy watching the race, OR bet it
(course 1/9 is not a smart bet), but do not hunt because
of the odds. Better to find another race where you will
get a square price than to waste a bet.
BELMONT PARK PICKS FOR FRIDAY- GOOD LUCK TODAY!
BEL RACE 1 CLM 7.5K 6F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 5-7-2 Class Rating: 5-2-7
Speed Rating: 5-2-1
Speed Par for this Race: 81
5 2/1 HOT AND BOTHERED (5/2) early runner has high early
foot and enters off a win vs tougher 10K open claimers
(88); makes the 2nd start off the layoff and 1st off the
claim (14%-51%). Trainer is (20%-60%) with a drop off the
win and (22%-57%) with drops off a claim. THREAT right
back. 2 for 2 at BEL.
7 5/2 TRILLIAN (3/1) stalker has high early foot and
enters off a 3L win vs similar; DS (9 4-0-1) makes the
THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (13%-26%).
2 7/2 RED HOT BABY (3/1) presser may be helped by the
class drop (7 14%-43%) but she did run a decent race
against tougher 10K open claimers two back while clocking
83 and finishing 3rd; DS (11 3-1-1).
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BEL RACE 2 CLM 16K 7 ˝ F 3UP
Top Selections: 4-3-5 Class Rating: 4-3-1
Speed Rating: 3-4-6
Speed Par for this Race: 87
4 9/5 TALL POPPI (8/5) takes a big class drop (5 40%-60%)
after clocking 85 vs tougher 35K open claimers last start.
HFC (7 2-2-1).
3 2/1 TOMMASI (2/1) ran a close up 3rd last start vs
tougher 25K OC company and clocked 84; DS (5 2-1-1) but no
wins over the BEL main yet (7 0-1-1).
5 3/1 WEB GEM (3/1) makes the often rewarding THIRD START
OFF LAYOFF (13%-26%); goes route to sprint (15%-42%).
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BEL RACE 3 ALW 53Kn1x 1M 1/16 3UP
Top Selections: 1-2-4 Class Rating: 2-4-1
Speed Rating: 1-2-4
Speed Par for this Race: 98
1 9/5 WINAHOLIC (9/5) presser ran a close up 3rd while
clocking a sharp 98 last start vs similar and is a threat
here.
2 5/2 TOP IT (5/2) stalker ran a distant 3rd last start vs
similar but clocked 94 and figures to be part of this.
4 2/1 WAKE MAKER (2/1) early runner broke maiden (98) last
start and meets winners today.
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BEL RACE 4 CLM 20n1yK 7F TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 3-2-5-7 Class Rating: 3-5-7
Speed Rating: 1-2-4
Speed Par for this Race: 90
3 2/1 WITCHY MEETING (2/1) Rick Dutrow charge makes the
2nd grass start (11%-41%) and is in for a tag for the
first time ever (30%-57%).
2 3/1 GO GO PINK (5/2) ran a close up 2nd last start and
clocked 88; THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (28%-56%). Decent grass
record (13 3-3-1).
5 5/1 FOURTH CHAPTER (4/1) closer ran a very good 2nd last
start and clocked 84 and cuts back in distance which may
help.
7 6/1 SPEED DATING (9/2) is somewhat of a HFC (5 1-1-1)
and DS (4 1-1-1) and makes the 2nd start off the layoff
(25%-52%) after a distant 7th last start vs tougher 50K OC
company. 1st time claimer (27%-40%).
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BEL RACE 5 MC 16K 6F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 9-8-6-1 Class Rating: 8-6-9
Speed Rating: 9-8-6
Speed Par for this Race: 75
9 6/5 SPLENDROUS (8/5) hit board in both of last two
starts and goes from route to sprint (35%-59%); best dirt
speed is 81.
8 4/1 AMAZING LAUREN (3/1) best dirt speed is 79 run two
back when a close up 5th vs tougher special weights and is
in for a tag for the first time (21%-38%).
6 8/1 LADY OF THE FOREST (6/1) 2nd timer (23 4%-22%) is in
for a tag (0/15-20%) and will race with FT blinkers (10%-
30%).
1 10/1 VERY (8/1) another 2nd timer who makes the 1st with
trainer (0/2-0/2) and will get FT blinkers (0/3-67%);
first time on dirt as the debut was on sod vs 50K special
weights so is also in for a tag.
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BEL RACE 6 CLM 16Kn2L 6F TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 1-7-9-6 Class Rating: 9-10-6
Speed Rating: 7-12-1
Speed Par for this Race: 78
1 3/1 KAZ DEAR (3/1) stalker returns from a 9+ mo layoff
(24%-36%) and is 1 for 2 over the BEL turf; best turf
speed was 79 in his last race before the break. 1A 3/1
BEAUTIFUL PEAR (4/1) early runner ran a close up 5th last
start vs similar but may improve as she returns to a
sprint today.
7 7/2 ANGEL WAVE (7/2) stalker owns a win/place/show for 4
starts on the turf and broke maiden last start on the sod
while clocking 75 at today’s distance.
9 4/1 PEA STONE (4/1) presser gets FT blinkers (0/5-0/5)
and drops a level (0/9-33%); rana close up 4th last start
vs tougher 25K non 2 lifers and clocked 76.
6 8/1 BELLA UNO (8/1) ,missed by 1L last start vs 15K non
2 lifers to be 2nd best and clocked 74; 2nd grass start
(5%-33%); ran a decent 2nd in the turf debut (74) which
was about 6 starts back.
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BEL RACE 7 MC 16K 1M 1/16 iTURF 3UP
Top Selections: 1-7-9-2 Class Rating: 1-8-2
Speed Rating: 1-7-2
Speed Par for this Race: 71
1 5/2 LAMAR VALLEY (5/2) closer ran 2nd vs tougher 35K
maiden claimers last start and clocked 79 on the dirt,
best turf speed is 80; big class drop (5 40%-60%) and
return to sod (21%-48%) may help.
7 5/1 THE CUFF SHOOTER (3/1) presser ran a close up 5th in
last start vs tougher 35K maiden claimers and clocked 75;
trainer is (3 33%-33%) on the big drop in class. Best turf
speed is 83.
9 3/1 BUFFALO RUNNER (7/2) stalker ran a very good 3rd
last start vs similar and clocked 75 and now makes the
often rewarding THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (24%-56%) plus they
add the blinkers back (6 33%-67%).
2 4/1 KING PRADA (4/1) ran a close up 3rd last start vs
similar stock and he may be helped by the added
distance ;ran 3rd in all 3 of last 3. Best turf speed is
75.
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BEL RACE 8 ALW 52Kn1x 7F TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 1-4-5-3 Class Rating: 3-1-4
Speed Rating: 3-1-2
Speed Par for this Race: 94
1 8/5 MANHATTAN FOX (9/5) has the speed but does not
appear to care for the distance as he is zero for 3 and
has not hit board. Pressing style.
4 5/2 EZZY (5/2) early runner has high early foot and
could set pace; beat 2nd level 50K OC company last start
and clocked 90, but turf best is 97.
5 7/2 CLOSE TO THE EDGE (3/1) presser ran a decent 3rd
after a DQ last start (from 4th) vs tougher 100K stakes
foes; 2nd start on the sod (8%-33%).
3 15/1 NO QUESTIONS (12/1) presser is back from a 3+ mo
layoff (0/5-0/5); shows good speed on the main track and
returns to the sod today.
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BEL RACE 9 MC 16K 6F iTURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 1-9-3-8 Class Rating: 11-1-9
Speed Rating: 11-1-9
Speed Par for this Race: 85
1 5/2 MR. HADIF (5/2) stalker has finished 2nd on the turf
twice for 5 turf starts; best turf speed is 77.
9 3/1 SEREN TRIPPIDY (3/1) closer ran a close up 4th last
start vs similar and clocked a turf best 75.
3 8/1 CLASSROOM LEGEND (6/1) presser makes turf debut (7%-
29%) for the Contessa barn who tabs Castellano in the
irons; SIRE (MR. GREELEY)-DAM (a daughter of Danzig) w/FT
TURF (10%-26%).
8 4/1 REIGN OF KINGS (6/1) 2nd timer makes first start
with Carl Domino (17 12%-47%) and turf debut (0/13-0/13);
SIRE (PRIME TIMBER)-DAM (a daughter of Ferdinand) w3/FT
TURF (8%-7%).
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Contact Kristin Slape at hulabird@prodigy.net and on
Twitter @hulabird1
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