Kristin Slape’s SARATOGA PICKS
Placed for SUNDAY, July 25, 2010 1st Post 1 PM EST
Good Luck!
Pick Info:
Speed figure references are BRIS figures
FTS-First time starter
FT First time (as in FT lasix)
2nd timer-horse making 2nd career start
HFC=Horse for Course
TS = Turf Specialist
DS = Distance Specialist
OC=Optional Claiming/Allowance
MC=Maiden claiming
MDN=Maiden Special Weight
HCP=Handicap
ALW=Allowance and ST ALW =Starter Allowance
G1, G2, G3 =Graded Stakes
ML odds listed first and Fair Odds after horse name in ( ).
Stats listed are in win-ITM (in the money) format (Example
25%-50% would mean 25% wins and 50% ITM)
Alternate pick in case of scratch: these are as said, in
case of a scratch, but also can be used in gimmicks-
(consider them in order as my 5th, 6th choice). Use the
speed and class rating horses as chance LONGSHOT PLAYS or
additions to your gimmicks as they come through quite
often as well.
WAGERING TIP: Never bet against a legitimate favorite—only
bet against the favorites that are false or vulnerable
favorites. If you decided before you looked at the tote on
a particular horse because it had what it takes to win the
race and then look at the tote and the horse is 1/9, DO
NOT bet against that horse because of the odds, either sit
that race out and enjoy watching the race, OR bet it
(course 1/9 is not a smart bet), but do not hunt because
of the odds. Better to find another race where you will
get a square price than to waste a bet.
SARATOGA PICKS FOR SUNDAY- GOOD LUCK TODAY!
(If I have used a AE horse in my picks, the pick in ( ) is
the alternate in case of a scratch)
I am now putting speed figures in ( ) as well to indicate
the speed clocked for a particular race.
SAR RACE 1 ALW 43Kn1x 1M 1/16 iTURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 5-6-11-7(8) Class Rating: 8-11-2
Speed Rating: 11-8-2
Speed Par for this Race: 83
MAIN TRACK:
5 5/1 IN YOUR DREAMS (3/1) STALKER has good early foot as
well and hit the board in all 4 career starts including
3rd place efforts vs similar in last two starts; best turf
speed (82). 3 for 3 ITM on grass with a win.
6 3/1 FRIVOLOUS BUCK (7/2) STALKER has a moderate amount
of early foot and is 5 for 8 ITM on the sod including 1
win. Best turf speed (83).
11 6/1 TUTTI VA BENE (5/1) AE LIST; STALKER has moderate
early ability and a decent grass record (13 2-3-1); ran an
(88) last start vs 25K open claimers so is actually
stepping up the competition level; could factor in IF she
does draw in today.
7 6/1 RUMORS OF GLORY (9/2) PRESSER broke maiden in her
turf debut last start (85) and makes the 2nd grass start
(6%-31%) as she meets winners today. Pedigree indicates
she will likely enjoy the stretch out today (12%-36%).
ALTERNATE:
8 6/1 STARJETTA (9/2) STALKER has high early speed from
the gate and her only turf try was a winning one and it
was at today’s distance (83). Goes dirt to turf (0/30-6%).
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SAR RACE 2 MDN 40K 5 ½ F 2YO FILLIES
Top Selections: 3-4-7-6 Class Rating: 7-5
Speed Rating: 7-5
Speed Par for this Race: 82
3 5/2 RISK A CHANCE (5/2) FTS KIMMEL (110 14%-34%); SIRE
(A.P. INDY)-DAM (a daughter of Seeking The Gold) w/FTS
(12%-17%). Decent works over the BEL training track; well
bred.
4 2/1 YAWKEY WAY (5/2) FTS C. BROWN (84 10%-32%); SIRE
(GRAND SLAM)-DAM (a daughter of Touch Gold) w/FTS (12%-
9%). Decent works over the SAR training track.
7 3/1 LADY MAUREEN (3/1) EARLY; has decent early foot and
makes the 2nd career start (30 10%-47%); ran (71) in the
debut race where she finished a distant 2nd vs similar.
6 6/1 PAGE BY PAGE (6/1) FTS HENNIG (123 7%-25%); SIRE
(READ THE FOOTNOTES)-DAM (a daughter of Favorite Trick)
w/FTS (9%-13%)
-----------------------------------
SAR RACE 3 ALW 42Kn1x 7F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 4-2-3-1 Class Rating: 4-8-3
Speed Rating: 4-1-8
Speed Par for this Race: 88
4 2/1 CODY SAMORA (2/1) EARLY; ran an impressive debut
race clocking (95) while beating the field by 16L; comes
back from a 9 mo. layoff (48 15%-42%); note that debut
race was on a muddy track.
2 5/1 VICARIOUS (7/2) PRESSER is a HFC (3 1-1-1) and DS (2
1-0-1) and has some very decent back speed that would make
her a top contender if repeated (mid to high 80’s).
3 7/2 ROGUE’S JEWEL (4/1) CLOSER will race with FT
blinkers today (50 10%-36%) after a distant 4th last start
vs similar stock; can improve with this 2nd start off the
layoff (13%-48%).
1 4/1 TEAM PLAN (4/1) CLOSER ran 2nd last start vs similar
(81) and might be helped by the added distance today. 1A
4/1 NORTHERN WARRIOR (5/1) CLOSER ran 3rd (80) last start
vs similar and is another that may like the added
distance.
JUST A MENTION IF TRACK COMES UP MUDDY:
8 12/1 CATCHAPENNY K.(12/1) CLOSER ran (87) on the mud
last start and may be a good gimmick addition if the track
come sup muddy today, seems to run faster on off tracks
and does have a decent mud pedigree with Pollard’s Vison
on top (21%) and a bottom figure of (13%).
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SAR RACE 4 OC 50Kn2x 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 1-2-8-6 Class Rating: 4-8-9
Speed Rating: 6-9-2
Speed Par for this Race: 102
1 3/1 DESERT KEY (3/1) STALKER has moderate early foot and
makes the often rewarding THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (17%-38%)
after a 4th place effort (83) vs similar stock; has some
very sharp triple digit back speed (113 being the best
that he ran last year at SAR). DS (6 2-3-0); SAR (2 0-2-0).
2 9/2 AMERICAN CLASSIC (4/1) PRESSER and Todd Pletcher
charge has been facing tougher stakes competition in last
several starts and ran a 101 2 starts ago when finishing
3rd vs 60K stakes foes.
8 4/1 BOOTED (4/1) STALKER makes the first start with
trainer (14%-43%)after a 4th place effort vs tougher 66K
stakes foes last start (96).sharp 4f ft BULLET work over
the SAR main 7/20, clocked best of 44 that day/distance.
6 5/1 MESA SUNRISE (5/1) EARLY; back from a 9+ mo layoff
(26%-57%) and ran a couple triple digit figures before the
break, best being (104).
ALTERNATE:
9 6/1 BE BULLISH (5/1) EARLY runner has decent early foot
and may likely set the pace; back from a 46 day rest (12%-
19%). I left off the top 4 but he does have a shot with
best to at least hit the board.
---------------------------------------------
SAR RACE 5 MDN 40K 5 ½ TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 1-8-3-5 Class Rating: 1-11-5
Speed Rating: 5-1-8
Speed Par for this Race: 86
1 9/5 FIDDLER’S CHAPARITO (2/1) EARLY runner has high
early foot and ran a very good 3rd last start vs similar
when making turf debut at 6 panels (78); shorter distance
may help cause.
8 4/1 WESTERN CONNECTION (3/1) PRESSER is 6 for 11 OTM on
the sod (11 0-3-3) and has the speed to at least take a
share of this.
3 8/1 MAGNIFICENT TIGER (5/1) EARLY runner is not as quick
out of the gate as the 1 and 5 but he did run (79) on
grass two starts back and finished a close up 3rd vs
similar. Gets FT blinkers (14 36%-51%). Makes the 2nd
start with trainer (11 36%-64%). 2nd start off layoff (42
17%-38%).
5 7/2 GERARD LOVES (4/1) EARLY runner will be right out of
the gate with my next pick if he likes the surface since
he is making his debut on grass (36 14%-25%). SIRE:
(SONGANDAPRAYER)-DAM (a daughter of Fit To Fight) w/FT
TURF (9%-4%). Best dirt speed is 83 and if he can transfer
it to the turf will be a contender for the win.
MAIN TRACK ONLY:
11 6/1 RUNAWAY JIM (4/1) CLOSER tries the main track for
the first time after two failed attempts on the turf.
Makes the 3rd career start today if he draws in and could
take a share if he takes to the surface.
-----------------------------------------
SAR RACE 6 MC 35K 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 2-5-4-9 Class Rating: 2-9-11
Speed Rating: 2-5-9
Speed Par for this Race: 85
2 3/1 SCARY GOOD (7/2) STALKER is in for a tag for the
first time (17%-48%) and has been running speed figures
that make this Zito trainee a top threat here. Blinkers
are removed (17%-49%) today too.
5 5/1 STARR WEST (3/1) STALKER has high early foot and is
back in for a tag today 3 33%-100%); has been competitive
against today’s level as well as against tougher but seems
to have a case of seconditis. Reunites with Ramon
Dominguez.
4 6/1 SPLENDID BEHAVIOR (9/2) PRESSER hit the board in
both of only 2 starts vs similar (in last and 50K claimers
in the start before); best dirt speed is 83. FT blinkers
(49 8%-49%).
9 6/1 LEADING CANDIDATE (5/1) EARLY runner has moderate
early foot from the gate and is another dropping in for a
tag for the first time (17 18%-53%). This is the first
time he will be on a fast track (hopefully) as his first
start was on turf, 2nd on polytrack and last was on the
slop.
LONGSHOT CHANCE PLAY:
8 10/1 MR. BENJAMIN (8/1) Todd Pletcher charge makes the
2nd career start (24%-50%) after being beaten 21L in the
debut vs tougher 74K special weights at MTH; clocked a
sharp 4f ft BULLET drill at MTH on 7/19, best of 28 that
day/distance and is in for a tag for the first time (27%-
53%).
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SAR RACE 7 CLM 25K 5 ½ F TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 4-8-10-5 Class Rating: 4-1A-8
Speed Rating: 4-9-6
Speed Par for this Race: 91
4 2/1 LITTLE NICK (2/1) PRESSER is a TS (7 1-2-2) and DS
(6 1-2-2) and has the speed and class to beat these; ran a
close up 3rd (98) last start vs 75K stakes foes and is
back from a 6+ mo layoff (11%-41%).
8 5/1 SUMFUN (7/2) PRESSER is a TS (5 3-1-1) and a DS (5 3-
1-1) and enters off a close up 5th vs tougher 40K open
claimers (91) on dirt; makes 2nd start with trainer (0/2-
0/2) and 2nd off the claim (0/3-33%).
10 6/1 FASTUS CACTUS (9/2) STALKER from the barn of Rick
Dutrow who returns him from a 49 day rest (23%-51%); Good
grass record thus far (4 2-0-1) and ran a (94) on the turf
last start while finishing 3rd vs 12.5K HCP company.
5 6/1 WINTHROP HOUSE (5/1) CLOSER beat 16K OC company last
start (90) and is a DS (6 3-1-1) and is 1 for 1 over the
SAR turf. Trainer is (15%-45%) with repeaters.
MAIN TRACK ONLY: 1A 5/1 MY GOLDEN OPINION (5/1) PRESSER
may be a decent consideration for the gimmicks as he
enters off back to back wins and has the speed to be a
part of this but does break from PP13.
--------------------------------------------
SAR RACE 8 OC 50Kn2x 1M 1/16 iTURF 3UP
Top Selections: 9-1-8-2 Class Rating: 9-2-8
Speed Rating: 8-10-12
Speed Par for this Race: 95
MAIN TRACK ONLY: 11
9 3/1 MIKOSHI (3/1) STALKER from the barn of Michael Matz
ran a close up 2nd (96) last start vs 78.3K 2nd level
allowance foes and is a DS (6 1-2-2); Julian Leparoux is
in the saddle today.
1 4/1 WAR HOOT (4/1) PRESSER is back from a 2+ mo layoff
(21%-54%); ran a close up 5th last start (96) vs similar
stock. 1 for 2 at the distance.1A 4/1 CALLIDE VALLEY (4/1)
MAIN TRACK ONLY; STALKER has to draw in if off the turf
today; decent pedigree for mud.
8 6/1 ROCK IN BAGE (4/1) CLOSER ran a close up 5th last
start vs 81.3K 2nd level allowance foes (92) for the
Kieran McLaughlin barn and has the speed to be a threat
and take a share with best.
2 5/1 UNCLE INDY (5/1) CLOSER ran a good third against
similar (97) two starts back and now returns from a 53 day
rest (32%-58%).
MAIN TRACK ONLY:
11 5/2 MIDNIGHT MISCHIEF (5/2) PRESSER is my TOP PICK if
race is taken off the sod today; The Mott charge faced
tougher G2 stock in the last two starts.
10 5/1 THE ROUNDHOUSE (4/1) STALKER is another that could
hit the board with best if race is off the turf; the
Pletcher charge has some solid back speed as well (104).
-----------------------
SAR RACE 9 $150K G2 SANFORD S. 6F 2YO
Top Selections: 4-6-1-3 Class Rating: 4-5-1
Speed Rating: 4-6-3
Speed Par for this Race: 100
4 2/1 BAIL OUT THE CAT (2/1) EARLY runner broke maiden at
first asking on the mud last start (102) and trainer Rick
Violette is (18%-40%) with repeaters off a maiden win.
6 7/2 CHIPSHOT (5/2) EARLY runner from the Asmussen barn
ran (101) last start when breaking maiden and has been
rested 46 days (24%-52%). Possible threat.
1 3/1 LOU BRISSIE (3/1) CLOSER has two wins and a 2nd on
his record with a best dirt speed of (99); makes the 2nd
start off the layoff (9%-40%). 1A 3/1 BLUE RIGHT BY (6/1)
EARLY runner ran his best speed figure (86) last start and
others seem more likely.
3 10/1 NACHO SAINT (6/1) STALKER ran well in both of only
2 starts clocking (97) in debut and followed by a (93) in
the next, finishing 2nd in both starts. Had to mention
this one because he may upset at a price.
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SAR RACE 10 CLM 25Kn2L 5 ½ F TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 6-9-1-11 Class Rating: 14-5-1
Speed Rating: 14-6-15
Speed Par for this Race: 79
6 4/1 SONG FOR PUPCAKE (3/1) PRESSER is in for a tag for
the first time (23 9%-43%) and makes the often rewarding
THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (8%-35%). Best turf speed is (83).
9 3/1 TIDAL SLAM (7/2) EARLY runner may set the pace and
is 1 for 1 on the sod; Ran an (82) last start on turf
while breaking maiden (MC 25K).
1 6/1 TOY INDIAN (9/2) CLOSER makes the 2nd grass start
(21%-50%) for the Ken McPeek barn; shorter distance may
help.
11 12/1 AURIC GIRL (10/1) CLOSER has a win and a 2nd for 5
turf starts; ran (79) while finishing 5th last start vs
tougher entry level allowance foes.
MAIN TRACK ONLY:
14 7/2 ANNIE’S MELODY (4/1) STALKER can take a share if
she draws in today; 1st time in as a claimer (14%-47%).
15 5/2 ANNUAL APPEAL (3/1) CLOSER is another that may be
able to take a share of this if race is off the sod.
Contact Kristin Slape at hulabird@prodigy.net and on
Twitter @hulabird1
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