Kristin Slape’s SARATOGA PICKS
Placed for MONDAY, July 26, 2010 1st Post 1 PM EST
Good Luck!
Pick Info:
Speed figure references are BRIS figures
FTS-First time starter
FT First time (as in FT lasix)
2nd timer-horse making 2nd career start
HFC=Horse for Course
TS = Turf Specialist
DS = Distance Specialist
OC=Optional Claiming/Allowance
MC=Maiden claiming
MDN=Maiden Special Weight
HCP=Handicap
ALW=Allowance and ST ALW =Starter Allowance
G1, G2, G3 =Graded Stakes
ML odds listed first and Fair Odds after horse name in ( ).
Stats listed are in win-ITM (in the money) format (Example
25%-50% would mean 25% wins and 50% ITM)
Alternate pick in case of scratch: these are as said, in
case of a scratch, but also can be used in gimmicks-
(consider them in order as my 5th, 6th choice). Use the
speed and class rating horses as chance LONGSHOT PLAYS or
additions to your gimmicks as they come through quite
often as well.
WAGERING TIP: Never bet against a legitimate favorite—only
bet against the favorites that are false or vulnerable
favorites. If you decided before you looked at the tote on
a particular horse because it had what it takes to win the
race and then look at the tote and the horse is 1/9, DO
NOT bet against that horse because of the odds, either sit
that race out and enjoy watching the race, OR bet it
(course 1/9 is not a smart bet), but do not hunt because
of the odds. Better to find another race where you will
get a square price than to waste a bet.
SARATOGA PICKS FOR MONDAY- GOOD LUCK TODAY!
(If I have used a AE horse in my picks, the pick in ( ) is
the alternate in case of a scratch)
I am now putting speed figures in ( ) as well to indicate
the speed clocked for a particular race.
SAR RACE 1 CLM 10K 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 6-8-7-2 Class Rating: 5-7-6
Speed Rating: 5-6-8
Speed Par for this Race: 89
6 7/2 DEVILISH DUE (3/1) STALKER has moderate early foot
and tactical speed and takes a big class drop (18%-58%);
ran a close up 4th last start vs tougher 25K open claimers
(83).
8 8/1 FIERY REBEL (4/1) VALUE PLAY! PRESSER makes the 2nd
start with trainer Bruce Levine (31%-63%) and goes turf to
dirt (14 43%-57%). Has back speed that could make this one
a top threat if he can run back to it (86. 87. 88); also
makes the often rewarding THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (24%-53%).
7 6/1 ALWAYS ON THE MOVE (4/1) STALKER has decent early
ability and ran 2nd in last vs similar stock, beaten just
a neck (84). May improve with the shorter distance.
2 2/1 REGAL SOUL (7/2) CLOSER may have something left in
the tank after beating 15K non 21 life claimers last start
(90) but could also bounce off that career best figure.
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SAR RACE 2 CLM 10K 6F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 7-6-1-9 Class Rating: 7-6-9
Speed Rating: 6-7-1
Speed Par for this Race: 83
7 3/1 PRIMED TO BE READY (3/1) STALKER will likely run
just off the pace and may improve with the shorter
distance today; ran (82) and a close up 4th last start vs
10K starter allowance foes; another in here that loves the
distance (4 3-1-0).
6 5/2 ZIPPY LARRY (7/2) STALKER should be close up early
and takes a drop off a win vs tougher 25K open claimers
(0/5-20%)(ran an 84)—kind of suspicious on that drop;
makes the THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (17%-52%).
1 9/2 TAZA (9/2) STALKER has high early foot from the gate
and is super versatile as she can track close to the pace
or even set it; takes a big class drop today (12 25%-58%)
and is a DS (5 2-2-0). Possible VALUE PLAY
9 5/1 LORRAINE IN SPAIN (4/1) PRESSER ran a close up 4th
last start vs 16K non 3 life claimers and goes turf to
dirt (12%-50%); has been mostly running on the sod.
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SAR RACE 3 70K EVAN SHIPMAN S. 1M 1/8 3UP
Top Selections: 7-5-6-2 Class Rating: 7-1-5
Speed Rating: 7-2-6
Speed Par for this Race: 96
7 3/1 ICABAD CRANE (5/2) STALKER has moderate early foot
and some back speed (105) that would make him a threat
here if \repeated. Has 2 wins for 4 starts at this
distance.
5 5/2 GIANT MOON (3/1) STALKER usually travels pretty
close to the early pace and enters off a 2nd place effort
(101) vs 100K OC company last start. Has a win for 2
starts at the distance.
6 6/1 NAUGHTY NEW YORKER (4/1) STALKER travels a bit off
the pace and that may be to his advantage here, especially
since he is a HFC (7 3-2-0) and a somewhat of a DS (18 3-2-
1).
2 8/1 RUFFINO (6/1) STALKER should lay close to the early
pace and has a win for 1 start over the SAR main; has a
win and place for 3 starts at the distance; best dirt
speed was actually on the mud (102).
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SAR RACE 4 MC 25K 1M 1/16 TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 8-2-4-9 Class Rating: 8-2-9
Speed Rating: 8-9-2
Speed Par for this Race: 77
8 4/1 BIRD EMPIRE (5/2) STALKER earned a DNF last start
and now makes the 2nd start off the layoff (9%-45%); ran
an (89) in the start before that which was his turf debut,
he finished a very good 2nd in that one.
2 3/1 SWEAT SHOP (3/1) PRESSER ran a good 3rd last start
vs similar and clocked 73 but his turf best is 81 (2
back). 2 for 3 ITM on the sod.
4 7/2 MYSTIC FEVER (7/2) STALKER missed by just ¾ L last
start vs similar to be 4th and clocked (3); generally runs
in the mid to high 70’s on sod.
9 6/1 AVENGING (6/1) STALKER ran a decent (85) 3 starts
back while finishing 3rd vs tougher 44K special weights.
---------------------------------------------
SAR RACE 5 OC 50Kn2x 1M iTURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 4-1-5-8 Class Rating: 5-8-1
Speed Rating: 4-10-5
Speed Par for this Race: 91
MAIN TRACK ONLY: 10
4 3/1 FIREY RED (3/1) CLOSER ran a close up 3rd and
clocked (94) last start vs 64K allowance foes; makes 1st
start with trainer (17%-41%). TS (7 2-1-2) and DS (5 1-1-
2). Garrett Gomez remains in the irons.
1 7/2 DIAMOND DINA (7/2) STALKER has good early foot and
ran a close up 2nd last start vs similar stock (88); ran a
(94) while beating 35K open claimers in the race prior.
8 4/1 CONSEQUENCE (4/1) STALKER ran (87) last start while
3rd vs similar and may be helped by the added distance
today (she is 3 1-1-0 at today’s distance.
5 8/1 GRANTED TIGER (6/1) STALKER has moderate early speed
out of the gate and enters this off a 2L win vs similar
(94); trainer is (21%-52%) with repeaters.
MAIN TRACK ONLY:
10 9/5 KID KATE (9/5) is my TOP PICK if the race is taken
off the sod; ran a very sharp 97 last start vs similar and
only missed by ¾ L to take the place.
-----------------------------------------
SAR RACE 6 MDN 40K 5 ½ F TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 1-8-5-9 Class Rating: 8-5-7
Speed Rating: 8-9-5
Speed Par for this Race:
1 3/1 ELECTRA’S EGO (3/1) EARLY runner with good early
foot ran (81) last start vs 36K special weights and
finished a close up 2nd; makes the first start with Rick
Dutrow (26%-51%).1A 3/1 INVASIVE (6/1) AE LIST; MAKES TURF
DEBUT (0/2-0/2); SIRE (GOOD AND TOUGH)-DAM (Jovial Turn)
w/FT TURF 10%-0%).
8 7/2 BERNIE’S PAL (7/2) EARLY runner with high early
speed ran a close up 2nd (81) last start vs 36K special
weights and now makes the 2nd grass start (16%-34%).
5 8/1 BOATMAN’S DREAM (8/1) PRESSER ran 2nd in her last
three starts including her very last which was her turf
debut (81); trainer Linda Rice is (16%-34%) with 2nd grass
starts.
9 5/1 RENNINA (5/1) PRESSER ran 3rd (78) in her turf debut
last start and now makes the 2nd turf start (7 14%-57%).
----------------------------------
SAR RACE 7 CLM 25K 1M iTURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 3-8-1-5 Class Rating: 8-3-7
Speed Rating: 3-5-7
Speed Par for this Race: 85
3 3/1 PLATINUMPLUS (3/1) PRESSER enters off a win vs 25K
conditioned claimers (88) and now makes first start with
Barclay Tagg (31 29%-52%); sharo BULLET work on 7/22 at
SAR, clocked best of 17 on the main track. DISTANCE (6 0-2-
2).
8 8/1 CATTY MADELINE (6/1) PRESSER ran a close up 5th vs
tougher 50K OC company (2nd level) last start (83) and
rates well here; TS (12 3-2-2).
1 5/1 DOUBLE DINGHY DAY (5/1) PRESSER ran a close up 4th
last start vs 25K conditioned claimers (83); is 4 for 7
ITM at the distance but has yet to get a win.
5 20/1 SUZEE SUNRISE (20/1) STALKER has moderate early
foot and does have a decent turf record (6 2-0-2) and has
shown speed similar to these on the sod; dirt to turf (25
24%-44%); LONGSHOT.
--------------------------------------------
SAR RACE 8 OC 75Kn3x 6F 3UP
Top Selections: 4-3-6-5 Class Rating: 4-5-6
Speed Rating: 4-3-5
Speed Par for this Race: 102
4 3/1 CHECKLIST (3/1) EARLY runner has high early foot and
enters off a close up 4th vs tougher 100K stakes foes
(101) and ran a career best (108) in his last start just
before the break. Pletcher tabs Johnny V. back in the
irons.
3 4/1 ROLLERS (4/1) EARLY runner is more likely to run in
the 2nd tier of horses and thus may avoid dueling with my
top pick and others that have a bit more speed right from
the gate. Beat 2nd level 50K OC company last start by 7L
and clocked (107). HFC (4 3-1-0) and DS (12 4-4-1).
6 5/2 HAMAZING DESTINY (7/2) EARLY runner ran a very good
2nd last start vs 66K stakes competition (103) and is 2
wins for 6 starts at the distance.
5 5/1 DR. W (5/1) STALKER ran (101) while finishing a
close up 2nd vs tougher 100K OC company; DS (10 4-3-1).
SAR RACE 9 MC 25K 1M 1/16 TURF
Top Selections: 11-3-7-4 Class Rating: 3-7-11
Speed Rating: 10-1-3
Speed Par for this Race: 77
11 9/2 PICO DINERO (7/2) EARLY runner makes the 3rd career
start and enters off a close up 3rd (83) vs tougher 35K
maiden claimers (6%-39%) on the class drop).
7 7/2 LAMAR VALLEY (3/1) CLOSER missed by a head last
start to be 2nd (79) vs tougher 35K maiden claimers and
the class drop (25%-75%) may help.
3 3/1 EVENFOREVER (4/1) PRESSER ran a very good 2nd last
start vs similar (73); is 4 for 6 ITM on the sod and 3 for
3 ITM at the distance.
4 8/1 PAGAN RULER (8/1) PRESSER gets FT blinkers (0/5-20%)
after a close up 4th last start vs tougher 35K maiden
claimers; class drop (17%-39%).
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Contact Kristin Slape at hulabird@prodigy.net and on
Twitter @hulabird1
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