Kristin Slape’s SARATOGA PICKS
Placed for WEDNESDAY, July 28, 2010 1st Post 1 PM EST
Good Luck!
Pick Info:
Speed figure references are BRIS figures
FTS-First time starter
FT First time (as in FT lasix)
2nd timer-horse making 2nd career start
HFC=Horse for Course
TS = Turf Specialist
DS = Distance Specialist
OC=Optional Claiming/Allowance
MC=Maiden claiming
MDN=Maiden Special Weight
HCP=Handicap
ALW=Allowance and ST ALW =Starter Allowance
G1, G2, G3 =Graded Stakes
ML odds listed first and Fair Odds after horse name in ( ).
Stats listed are in win-ITM (in the money) format (Example
25%-50% would mean 25% wins and 50% ITM)
Alternate pick in case of scratch: these are as said, in
case of a scratch, but also can be used in gimmicks-
(consider them in order as my 5th, 6th choice). Use the
speed and class rating horses as chance LONGSHOT PLAYS or
additions to your gimmicks as they come through quite
often as well.
WAGERING TIP: Never bet against a legitimate favorite—only
bet against the favorites that are false or vulnerable
favorites. If you decided before you looked at the tote on
a particular horse because it had what it takes to win the
race and then look at the tote and the horse is 1/9, DO
NOT bet against that horse because of the odds, either sit
that race out and enjoy watching the race, OR bet it
(course 1/9 is not a smart bet), but do not hunt because
of the odds. Better to find another race where you will
get a square price than to waste a bet.
SARATOGA PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY- GOOD LUCK TODAY!
(If I have used a AE horse in my picks, the pick in ( ) is
the alternate in case of a scratch)
I am now putting speed figures in ( ) as well to indicate
the speed clocked for a particular race.
SAR RACE 1 ALW 42Kn1x 7F 3UP
Top Selections: 2-8-4-5 Class Rating: 7-5-2
Speed Rating: 4-8-1
Speed Par for this Race: 95
2 5/2 HITTIN THE NOTE (5/2) STALKER ran a close up 2nd
last start vs similar (85) last start and goes route to
sprint (13%-43%).
8 4/1 ZOSOGOOD (3/1) PRESSER ran a close up 2nd last start
vs 15K non 3 life claimers (89) and makes the 2nd start
with trainer Brice Levine (30%-62%) and 2nd start off the
layoff (21%-55%).
4 3/1 STEAL THE SHOT (7/2) PRESSER ran a close up 4th last
start vs similar and clocked (84); Shorter distance may
help chances.
5 15/1 HEAVENLY BLAZE (15/1) PRESSER ran 5th vs similar
last start (79) and is somewhat of a HFC (3 1-1-0); may
take a share of the super with best.
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SAR RACE 2 MC 35K 6F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 7-4-3-6 Class Rating: 7-6-4
Speed Rating: 3-4-7
Speed Par for this Race: 80
7 4/1 E STREET (2/1) PRESSER ran 2nd in both of only 2
starts against weaker and wons a best fast track speed of
75, but did run an 83 on the slop; 2nd off the layoff (18%-
48%) 2nd start with trainer Michael Trombetta (19%-59%)
and makes only her 3rd lifetime start today.
4 5/2 GROSSE POINTE ANNE (5/2) PRESSER ran a close up 2nd
(89) last start vs tougher 50K MC company and now comes
back from a 5+ mo layoff (19%-45%).
3 3/1 INCLUDE THE CAT (3/1) CLOSER ran 3rd last start vs
tougher 50K MC company as well (80) and is back from a 52
day rest (14%-33%).
6 6/1 AMAZING LAUREN (6/1) PRESSER is in for a tag for the
first time as she makes the 4th lifetime start (21%-38%);
best dirt speed is (79) which was two starts ago.
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SAR RACE 3 CLM 12.5K 7F 3UP
Top Selections: 6-3-5-8 Class Rating: 3-5-8
Speed Rating: 5-7-3
Speed Par for this Race: 90
6 5/2 NOT FOR MONEY (5/2) STALKER has moderate early foot
and ran a (90) last start vs tougher 20K open claimers
while finishing a close up 4th and now steps down a notch
(32%-65%) for the Rick Dutrow barn; has some excellent
back speed (108).
3 4/1 KILN CREEK (3/1) CLOSER ran a close up 3rd last
start vs 10K starter allowance foes (90) and now makes the
2nd start since the claim (13 8%-15%); 2nd start with
trainer (7 14%-29%).
5 5/1 AQUINO (4/1) STALKER has high early foot and enters
off a win vs 10K conditioned claimers. Has the speed to at
least grab a slice and comes back from a 2+ mo layoff (15%-
43%).
8 3/1 O’KID (7/2) PRESSER steps up a level (15%-46%) after
beating 7.5K open claimers (91); has beaten tougher than
today in the past.
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SAR RACE 4 CLM 35Kn2L 1M 1/16 TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 6-4-5-10 Class Rating: 7-1-4
Speed Rating: 4-7-10
Speed Par for this Race: 85
6 3/1 ON VACATION (3/1) CLOSER ran a very good 2nd (84)
last start vs 25K non 2 life claimers and now makes the
THIRD START OFF LAYOFF (20%-54%) for the Bill Mott barn.
4 4/1 QUICK DELIVERY (7/2) CLOSER is in for a tag for the
first time (23%-45%) after a 7th place effort vs tougher
entry level allowance company; best turf speed is (90).
5 4/1 OVERLAP (4/1) PRESSER ran a close up 2nd last start
vs similar (83) and is 3 for 5 ITM on the sod but has not
yet gotten to the winner’s circle.
10 5/1 MOTION PLAY (9/2) PRESSER ran a close up 3rd last
start vs 30K non 2 life claimers (78)at today’s distance
and makes the 2nd start off the claim (21 29%-57%).
---------------------------------------------
SAR RACE 5 CLM 10n2LK 6F 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 8-1-6-7 Class Rating: 8-7-1
Speed Rating: 8-6-7
Speed Par for this Race: 77
8 3/1 WON TOKEN (3/1) PRESSER ran a close up 2nd last
start vs tougher 15K non 2 life claimers (78) and has a
win and place for 4 starts at today’s distance and one of
those wins was over the SAR main. THIRD START OFF LAYOFF
(22%-47%);
1 4/1 LA BELLE GABRIELLE (4/1) CLOSER drops a level (17
29%-65%); ran 3rd last start vs tougher 15K non 2 life
claimers.
6 9/2 SUDDEN SILVER (4/1) EARLY runner is back from a 2+
mo layoff (13%-41%); bets dirt speed is 79, which she ran
2 starts back while breaking maiden.
7 5/1 GREENS N BEANS (9/2) EARLY runner with moderate
early foot ran 5th last start vs tougher 12.5K open
claimers (72); ran (77) while breaking maiden 2 starts ago.
-----------------------------------------
SAR RACE 6 MC 25K 1M 1/16 iTURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 7-8-4-12 Class Rating: 8-2-12
Speed Rating: 8-4-7
Speed Par for this Race: 73
7 5/1 CHARMED (4/1) CLOSER ran a close up 4th last start
(88) against tougher 60K maiden claimers and now tries her
2nd route race (19%-39%); a threat if she can repeat that
last figure.
8 7/2 FANCY FIONA (3/1) STALKER has moderate early foot
and enters off a 6th place effort vs tougher 52K special
weights where she clocked (81) but best turf speed is (83).
4 4/1 TRUTH WILL TELL (4/1) PRESSER ran a close up 4th
last start vs tougher 35K MC company and drops a notch
(while sporting FT blinkers (33 9%-24%); 2nd start off the
layoff (10%-44%); best turf speed is 71.
12 8/1 CONSPICUOUS (6/1) EARLY runner from the barn of
Harold Bond tries the grass for the 2nd time (13 0%-31%)
after a close up 3rd in the turf debut last start (68);
Julien Leparoux takes over the controls; VALUE PICK.
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SAR RACE 7 CLM 25Kb 5 ˝ F TURF 3UP
Top Selections: 6-9-1-2 Class Rating: 2-6-4
Speed Rating: 1-6-10
Speed Par for this Race: 91
6 3/1 CROWNED GENERAL (3/1) PRSSER ran a close up 2nd last
start vs similar stock (87) and comes back from a 2+ mo
layoff (12%-38%) for Dale Romans; decent turf speed and a
DS (3 1-1-0).
9 4/1 DUNVEGAN (7/2) STALKER ran a very good 2nd last
start vs 20K non 3 life claimers and clocked (85); makes
the 2nd grass start (16%-34%) for the Linda Rice barn.
1 6/1 KING ROCK (5/1) CLOSER from the barn of Tony Dutrow
has been facing tougher and this softer spot may help
chances today; blinkers come off (10 40%-70%); goes dirt
to turf (28%-61%).
2 8/1 DON’T FOOLI HOULI (8/1) STALKER ran 3rd last start
vs tougher 25K OC company (2nd level) and clocked (84) on
the main track at AQU and returns from a year plus layoff
(16%-43%). Best turf speed is 90.
ALTERNATE PICK:
10 5/1 CORONATION DAY (5/1) STALKER ran a close up 3rd
last start vs 20K non 3 life claimers (84) and could take
a share of this with best.
--------------------------------------------
SAR RACE 8 G2 $150K LAKE GEORGE S. 1M 1/16 iTURF 3YO
FILLIES
Top Selections: 8-12-2-4 Class Rating: 12-9-3
Speed Rating: 9-8-11
Speed Par for this Race: 96
8 7/2 STRIKE IT RICH (3/1) STALKER from the barn of
Christophe Clement beat G3 foes last start (91) and gets
Garrett Gomez in the irons again today. Good record on sod
(6 4-0-1)
12 4/1 BAY TO BAY (7/2) CLOSER ran a close up 2nd last
start vs G3 foes (90) and thus far has a solid grass
record (5 2-2-1)
2 6/1 CRESCENDA (4/1) CLOSER ran a close up 2nd vs similar
G2 foes (87) last start; has the speed to win with best.
4 9/2 NEON LIGHT (4/1) has a good record on the turf thus
far (3 2-0-1) will race with FT lasix (0/1-0/1) and gets
the services of Edgar Prado today; this one is sort of a
question mark.
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SAR RACE 9 ALW 52Kn1x 5 ˝ F TURF 3UP F&M
Top Selections: 10-3-6-7 Class Rating: 10-11-9
Speed Rating: 11-1-8
Speed Par for this Race: 94
10 4/1 ROYAL FORTUNE (7/2) STALKER ran a close up 2nd vs
similar last start (90); THIRD START OFF THE LAYOFF (33%-
59%).
3 3/1 COLOUR THE WIND (3/1) STALKER has moderate early
speed and best speed on turf is (89) which she ran 2
starts ago. Lightly raced 3 YO daughter of Storm Cat whose
progeny win on the sod at a 17% clip.
6 5/1 ATREA (4/1) STALKER makes the 2nd start off the
layoff (19%-44%) after an even finish last start vs
similar (85) Best turf speed is (88).
7 6/1 BROKEN DREAMS (9/2) STALKER ran a very good 2nd last
start vs similar (86) and makes the third career start
today. 2nd grass start (16%-43%).
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Contact Kristin Slape at hulabird@prodigy.net and on
Twitter @hulabird1
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